The upturn in the value of world wine consumption is set for a record global market value of $224.5 billion by 2021. That’s according to the Vinexpo/IWSR annual forecasts for the wine and spirits sectors.
A comparison of the 10 years from 2011 to 2021 shows that the value of the world wine market will grow 40 percent to reach volume sales of 2.66 billion nine-litre cases. Driving the recovery are the USA and China, the world’s two most powerful economies, whose joint growth in wine consumption offsets declines elsewhere, notably in Europe.
Over the next five years, China will become the world’s second-largest market for grape wine behind world leader, the USA. Chinese consumption is expected to rise by over one third to $23 billion over the next five years when it will reach volume of 192 million cases. By comparison, in 2016 a volume leap of eight million cases pushed the value of the Chinese wine market to $15.24 billion (growth driven almost exclusively by still wine).
The USA, the world’s most valuable wine market worth more than $36 billion in 2017, is poised to grow over 25 percent in the run up to 2021, reaching more than $45 billion.
A number of other factors for growth range from a global love of sparkling wine, a clear global trend towards premium brands, and strong sales of whiskey.
Sparkling wine is forecast to grow by an average two percent year-on-year to 2021, driven predominantly by North America, but also showing strong growth in the UK and Asia-Pacific countries such as Australia and Japan. Those two countries helped to push sparkling wine in Asia-Pacific to a total value of $2.79 billion in 2016 for nine million cases. By 2012 that figure is forecast to rise to $3.73 billion (15.8 million cases).
Prosecco will outstrip other major categories such as Champagne and Cava by 2021 when world Prosecco consumption is set to reach 40 million cases. In the UK, the world’s largest sparkling wine importer, Prosecco is an outstanding success. Nonetheless, the USA is expected to show the most growth in consumption of Prosecco by 2021, while remaining number two behind the UK.
Champagne’s shift in focus from Europe to emerging markets looks set to accelerate. Europe’s share of global Champagne volume is forecast to have decreased by four percentage points by 2021, from 80 percent recorded in 2016.
In keeping with the trend to ‘drink less but better’, premium wines are forecast to drive global still wine consumption. The premium segment – wines selling for between $10 and $20 – is forecast to grow by over 60 million cases during this period. Standard brands ($5-$9.99) will grow just short of 32 million cases, and super-premium-plus just short of five million cases. The biggest losses will fall below $5, where the global category is expected to lose 75 million cases.
In spirits, too, premium price points are generally performing better than value, with mainstream standard brands developing at a healthy rate.
Whisky is expected to perform particularly well, especially Scotch and US whiskey, and to a lesser degree gin and tequila. This development broadly reflects the premiumisation trend with premium-and-above segments growing the fastest. The US and China will drive global growth of premium-and-above spirits. Combined, they are expected to add 30 million cases in these price segments, compared to a net gain of 46 million cases globally.
Meanwhile, the power of the Asia-Pacific region and the role of Hong Kong as a major business hub is highlighted by projected regional growth over the next five years from $29 billion in 2016 to $40.8 billion by 2021.
Guillaume Deglise, CEO of Vinexpo, said: “Since Vinexpo began tracking world data so many years ago we have witnessed the remarkable rise of the Asia Pacific region and its massive contribution to growth of the wine and spirits sectors. Being in Hong Kong since 1998 is a winning strategic choice that Vinexpo offers to its clients.”
The 20th anniversary of Vinexpo Hong Kong exhibition will take place from May 29 to 31, where 1300 exhibitors from 28 countries will showcase their products to an expected 18000 visitors.